A2- something to think
twice about
AA23 double-suited wins
all or part of the pot only 42% of the time.
Your nut low will be
counterfeited 25% of the time. If you survive to the river, you have a 14% chance. Having backups as "insurance" is important,
the lower the better.
If you hold an A2, there
is a 37% likelihood that one or more other players have it too.
If you hold A2 (and no
other lows cards) and are counting outs to make the nut low, don't forget to subtract the number of cards that can counterfeit
you (i.e. the remaining AAA and 222= 6 outs that will ruin your low).
Just because you have
an A2 in your hand doesn't mean you're in the money, especially if they aren't suited or if you don't have draws to other
hands. All of these unsuited A2 hands are break-even or losing hands in the long run:
A222
A27J
A227
A27Q
A228
A289
A229
A28Q
A278
A29Q
A279
A29K
A27T
Playing low
There will be a low 60%
of the time, but you might have to wait until the river card to get it.
Being quartered will
not hurt you if there are 4 or people in the pot, perhaps even 3 if the pot has been built up by other people's money.
If two other people have the nut low, you each get 17% of the pot.
Continually playing for
the low with no high hand to help out results in depleting your bankroll
61% of the cards in the
deck qualify as low cards.
If you have 2 low cards
in your hand that can't be counterfeited and 2 other low cards hit on the flop, you have a 41% of making your low. If the
third low doesn't come on the turn, your odds go down to 37%.
If you hold an A4, you
have a 2% chance of getting the 23. It's better if the ace is suited, but not too much better. A4 can be a trap hand. Be careful.
Do not hold an A5, A6,
A7, or A8 in hopes of winning the low. These hands are better if they are suited or double suited and have other draws, but
still nothing to write home about.
Odds are better than
even that an A, 2, or 3 will hit on the flop.
Playing high
Straights will lose 50%
of the time to a flush or full house on the river.
Flushes will lose 25%
of the time to a full house on the river.
What wins high? Here
are some numbers to think about. Keep in mind too that these numbers can vary slightly depending on the type of game.
2 pair- 5%
3 of a kind- 8%
Straight- 22%
Flush% 26%
Full house- 34%
4 of a kind- 4%
Straight flush- 0.7%
Straights
80% of the time, the
full board will have 3 or more cards to a straight.
A pre-flop hand of TJQK
will scoop the pot 13% of the time. You will split the pot 7% of the time.
A straight will lose
50% of the time to a flush or full house.
You have a 33% chance of hitting an outside straight, a 17% of hitting an inside straight.
Flushes
70% of all hands will
be suited or double-suited. Odds are better than even that two people will hold two cards of the same suit. So if you think
you're only person with clubs, be careful.
If you hold two cards
of one suit, there is only a 4% chance of making that flush. That number doubles to a whopping 8% if you hold two sets of
double-suited cards. In selecting pre-flop hands, you shouldn't count on these flushes hitting, but they do come in handy
when you hit your nut flush or a backdoor flush.
If two cards of that
suit hit on the flop (11% of the time), you have a 37% chance of making the flush. Have 4 cards the same suit? That's a bad
thing. It lowers your chances to 29%.
40% of the time, there
will be at least three suited cards on the full board.
Holding out for the river?
If you hold two cards of the same suit and two more are on the board, there is a 20% of getting that flush.
If you have the nut flush
going into the turn, you have a 75% chance of winning the high hand. If the river card pairs the board, look out for the full
house!
Playing a flush? Watch
out for someone holding a straight flush!
Full houses
50% of the time, the
full board will have at least one pair.
If you flop 3 pair, you
have a 25% chance of getting a full house with those pairs. If you flop 2 pair, it goes down to 17%.
There is a 2% chance
that a full house will get beat by quads.
There is a 27% chance
of the board pairing on the river.
If you have a pair and
the flop gives you trips, you have a 29% chance of the board pairing to give you a full house (or getting quads).
If a pair hits the flop and gives you trips, you have a 40% chance of the board pairing another card in your hand to
give you a full house.